I am going to stay (I hate this expression) cautiously optimistic. It seems you are as well, due to the complexity of this one. Some how I don't think anything will show itself until after earnings. If it is not a crazy mic drop moment, you will more than likely be more than correct when sentiment takes over. Either way, do you think it will mean we are at the end of the business cycle, or with more time for the business side of the stock to stay range bound (much larger range of course). I seem to be in the latter camp.
The thing is, sentiment is never out of the game. It's what's moving it right now, what will move it at earnings, and what will move it after earnings. Sentiment doesn't come and go.
As for your question about the business cycle, the stock and the business aren't the same. We very well may see (and have many times in prior memory market cycles) the stock fall but the financials and earnings continue to grow. I still have a path on the chart that shows us falling in a fourth wave before a fifth wave higher deep into the $500 range.
I certainly don't think that sentiment is out of the game on the stock / trading side, but I do think it can get over ran pretty easily by ridiculous + or - earnings. That said, I still don't understand the charting enough to see the waves the way you do. I do completely understand the separation of the business side from the stock side, and think the upside for the longer term (my horizon is 6 years) is still intact. Based off the business side / fundamentals of course.
The overrun you're talking about is sentiment at work. It's not overridden, it's playing out. The idea of EWT is to see the structure and understand what's most probable to happen. Simultaneously, it also shows you when the setup doesn't have clarity, which is a good example right now with MU, which is why I won't do anything until it clears up.
The idea is it gives you edges to know where upside and downside is and then where it changes/invalidates. I think a lot of people see EWT either as the end-all be-all of predictability, while others see it as slop. Both are wrong; it's meant to surface the most highly probable outcomes out of the infinite possibilities. And when you find a clear setup because it shows all the structure and signs, it can be very, very rewarding. You almost have to use EWT to guide you to the right chart rather than trying to get a chart you like or follow to work.
I am going to stay (I hate this expression) cautiously optimistic. It seems you are as well, due to the complexity of this one. Some how I don't think anything will show itself until after earnings. If it is not a crazy mic drop moment, you will more than likely be more than correct when sentiment takes over. Either way, do you think it will mean we are at the end of the business cycle, or with more time for the business side of the stock to stay range bound (much larger range of course). I seem to be in the latter camp.
The thing is, sentiment is never out of the game. It's what's moving it right now, what will move it at earnings, and what will move it after earnings. Sentiment doesn't come and go.
As for your question about the business cycle, the stock and the business aren't the same. We very well may see (and have many times in prior memory market cycles) the stock fall but the financials and earnings continue to grow. I still have a path on the chart that shows us falling in a fourth wave before a fifth wave higher deep into the $500 range.
I certainly don't think that sentiment is out of the game on the stock / trading side, but I do think it can get over ran pretty easily by ridiculous + or - earnings. That said, I still don't understand the charting enough to see the waves the way you do. I do completely understand the separation of the business side from the stock side, and think the upside for the longer term (my horizon is 6 years) is still intact. Based off the business side / fundamentals of course.
The overrun you're talking about is sentiment at work. It's not overridden, it's playing out. The idea of EWT is to see the structure and understand what's most probable to happen. Simultaneously, it also shows you when the setup doesn't have clarity, which is a good example right now with MU, which is why I won't do anything until it clears up.
The idea is it gives you edges to know where upside and downside is and then where it changes/invalidates. I think a lot of people see EWT either as the end-all be-all of predictability, while others see it as slop. Both are wrong; it's meant to surface the most highly probable outcomes out of the infinite possibilities. And when you find a clear setup because it shows all the structure and signs, it can be very, very rewarding. You almost have to use EWT to guide you to the right chart rather than trying to get a chart you like or follow to work.