Micron Minute: Still Not In The Clear
Micron is back in the low $400s and the bounce has been impressive, but the structure is telling a more cautious story.
I feel like a broken record. Micron MU 0.00%↑ has been the 2026 poster child in terms of market movements that “don’t make sense.” First it’s up, then it’s down, then it’s up more, then it’s down more. Now it’s up again. My boat and sea analogy from last week’s edition remains fitting as Micron is now back in low-$400s territory. But, as has been the case, this again was not surprising to those familiar with my recent analysis. However, we are now at a serious precipice for the stock (and really the market as a whole) in terms of the structure now appearing on the charts.
In case I’m not being clear: Micron isn’t in the clear, yet. In fact, I lean toward we haven’t seen the worst of this movement off the highs yet.
Now, for those not familiar with my work, fundamentals lag sentiment. This explains why you see a stock like Micron with absolutely terrific fundamentals get sold off and go lower than anyone really could imagine (especially at the time of earnings). Some will try to explain this bounce as a return to sanity, but the truth is, if you want to explain the market in a way where it’s bipolar, be my guest, but it’s not how the markets work. Simply stated, markets work in emotional cycles, just like the humans we are.
I used this example with a coaching client last week and explained just how people go through the stages of grief, or, even less morbid, the adoption cycle of new technology: it’s all emotionally driven. Many times, it’s not even what I would call voluntary; we just move through the emotions and stages naturally, seemingly without our consent. It’s no different for the stock market, and it’s no different with Micron.
I’ve seen a lot of recent back-and-forth chatter on social media and financial websites about how the higher CapEx could have caused the drop, or DRAM spot pricing is now pulling off highs just a bit could be doing it. None of it is pushing Micron back and forth like this. This is all sentiment that has been wound up and is moving through the cycle. It also doesn't explain how I saw this coming well in advance. It’s how I knew ahead of time what would have happened through earnings and right into April, as the chart below shows (notice the timestamp in the upper left-hand corner):
The green count (my primary on all my charts) was near perfectly on track. It wound up going a bit lower than I had placed green (C) at that time, but being directionally accurate and within 5% of the target proves the system I employ works.
Now, to understand which setup Micron was entering after hitting the $311 low required some near-term analysis. The fork in the road was to figure out if that was all of Micron’s correction or if it’s still in the middle of it? This meant analyzing the structure off the low - either three or five waves. Three waves would say the highest probability count is only a B wave bounce (thus only in the middle of a larger correction), while five waves up would say Micron is starting a new rally into all-time highs (and not just a poke, but really move into record territory).
Thus far, there have only been three waves, and it has now hit my target area for where three waves would complete before yet another reversal and we enter the larger C wave. If Micron were to be working a five-up move, it would test and hold $383 as support (the 61.8% extension) and then push through the high it made on Wednesday and head to $465 after.
If, however, the stock holds the $420 area and proves it to be resistance, this is more likely a three-wave up move and therefore a B wave. Overall, I’m expecting a slightly higher high to complete the C wave of this B wave ((C) of circle B) first before it’s complete, which should test our $420 area.
Should the $420 area hold as resistance and confirm the three-wave structure, the C wave target range is between $286 and $258. From there, it should find support, and where I'd begin looking for the larger correction to complete, setting up the next buying opportunity for Micron.
Overall, I wish I could say we were ready to see Micron run to new highs immediately, but right now that’s far from clear. Unless the five-wave up count starts to show itself, I have to be very cautious once again with the stock.
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